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By now most of those who use Second Life on a regular basis have likely heard about the nefarious plan of the Australian government to start mandatory filtering of web content, including video games and Second Life. Or something like that. I'm not sure about the facts as they are being reported by various sites, and while the idea of any government doing any sort of mandatory filtering smacks of censorship, and is a cause for general concern, the idea that Second Life is going to be banned outright appears to be sensationalist speculation. As part of the Second Life Solution Provider group we received an email yesterday from Madhavi Linden, Glenn Linden, and Katrin Linden regarding this subject, and it should help put to rest some of the panic:
Statement from Linden Lab
Linden Lab has received no indications from the Australian government that it plans to block Second Life and will keep our community apprised of any developments on that front. In the meantime, we want to assure Australian Residents that Second Life remains accessible and functioning in your region.
Australia has and will continue to be an important market for Linden Lab, and we’re committed to providing the best possible Second Life experience for the users in that market. Some of the most exciting uses of Second Life have come out of Australia, a diverse community of Residents that includes major universities, large enterprises and many thousands of consumers, who spend hundreds of thousands of hours inworld each month.
We will continue to keep you up to date on any new developments. Please contact us with any questions on either the comments section of the SP blog post or at.
For the Linden Lab Solution Provider Program team,
Madhavi, Glenn and Katrin
Sounds good.
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Posted by: Allison in 
: Technology: Second Life
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Defined tags for this entry: australia banning second life, australian web filtering, technology: second life
By now you may have read the various articles floating around the web today covering the latest Forrester report which states that things are worse than expected, but, things should improve by the end of the year.Of course one has to wonder about the prognostications, but if they are anywhere close it will look like this:
The analyst firm reduced its forecast for 2009 information technology spending from a 3 percent decline to a 10.6 percent decline, but it's the hitting bottom, it said. Spending should return to growth in the fourth quarter in the United States, and in the first half of 2010 in Europe and Asia, Forrester said, basing its forecast on newly collected data.
"The big drops are not precursors to further declines," said Andrew Bartels, a principal analyst at Forrester. "Rather, we think they are evidence of a temporary pause in U.S. tech purchases, which we expect to start recovering in the fourth quarter, as businesses realize that they overreacted in the first quarter."
Anyway, checking in with Gartner, they also seem slightly more postive as indicated in the following video. In any event, it's tough out there, so it's a great time to innovate and get prepared for an upturn somewhere down the road.
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Jun 26: EU Betting on "Virtual ...
By now you've probably heard about the Gartner quote that by 2011 80% of users will have a Second Life style avatar. There's much debate elsewhere on the web about what that means, whether it's accurate, and so on. What I feel it underscrores, however, is the recognition that despite the hype and deflation of expectations around Second Life the past few years, what it has started is a very real trend that is in the early stages, and will be the next revolutionary era of the web.This is not to say that Second Life will be Web 3.0, but rather, that deeply immersive 3d experience through personal avatars will be, complete with micro-economies, virtual currency, and a blending of the real and the virtual. Which brings up an interesting item that isn't getting a lot of press yet, but should taken seriously. The European Union (EU) has funded a project dubbed Virtual Life which aims to democratize the idea of social networks and virtual worlds via a P2P architecture.
VirtualLife aims to provide an immersive and secure environment, combining a high quality 3D virtual experience with the trustiness of a secure communication infrastructure.
VirtualLife constitutes a new form of civil organization, finalized to the creation of secure and ruled places within the virtual world, where important transactions can occur. The aggregation in communities and the collaboration between users is encouraged in order to reach a management of common and private interests. This collaboration is achieved through the definition of common rules that take care of all the involved cultures. A standard collection of laws, the Virtual Constitution, finalized to the creation and regulation of a secure and trusted environment (Virtual Nation) will be studied.
In order to reach high quality 3D metaverses and provide a rich user-experience, the Virtual World will be based on a peer-to-peer network with nodes connected using a secure protocol. Thus the resulting Virtual World will not be hosted on a central server cluster but will be based on a network of Virtual Zone Servers (VZ Servers). This gives the end-user the full control on the fundamental components of the Virtual Zone Server and the protection of his sensible data.
The peer-to-peer architecture will enable easy and fast sharing of contents without third ruling partners: the only ruling entity will be the law in force, defined by the users’ community and accepted by those users who join the community afterwards.
Each VZ Server simulates all the entities in the zone and gives the users the possibility to create and share contents, media, and data in a very intuitive way.
This is a very interesting approach, and if successful will certainly threaten to tear down the walled garden approaches to the current social and virtual networks out there today in much the same way that HTML undercut the walled gardens such as AOL. It's a seriously funded effort (to the tune of $3 million euros, so it has a chance of actually getting off the ground.
Stay tuned.
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Posted by: Allison in : Technology: Immersive WebComments: [0]
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Defined tags for this entry: eu, immersive web, p2p, second life, technology: immersive web, virtual life, virtual worlds
Jun 24: Notes on SL6B
Yesterday marked the official opening of the Second Life Sixth Birthday (SL6B) celebration with a keynote address from Philip Rosedale (Linden). The talk was short and to the point, and essentially inspirational. If you are a believer in what Second Life has to offer, you understand. If you are a believer, you are also a bit crazy (in a good way) and definitely a pioneer, for it is clear that this a brave new world we are creating, and there is no going back. As Philip essentially said, we are creating something as profound as exploring the far reaches of outer space.Hyperbole? Perhaps, but somehow I doubt it. Consider that we call it virtual reality, with the key word being "reality." It is every bit as real as anything else in that we see, we experience, we learn, we create, we love, we win, we lose, we experience all those things that make us human. It is perhaps the most powerfully human technology we have ever created. This week I will devote blog posts to some of what I come across at SL6B and encourage you to visit it.
First up, this is an exhibit called Once a Thought by Grace Loudon, and is an homage to the early video games that brought us here today. You'll recognize Pong, PacMan, Tron, and others. You can find it by clicking here.
Click image for fullsize
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Jun 22: SL6B Looks Awesome
The annual Second Life birthday celebration, known as SL6B, opens up this week to the public. As one of the exhibitors I have access to the sims and have to say it looks awesome. This really begins to show the potential of Second Life and I encourage you to visit.I won't give too much away, but this year the exhibit has a theme and is completely futuristic based. In it I feel like I am being transported to a completely different world, which is far different from the usual SL fare. It really demonstrates strongly what can happen when large areas are dedicated to a theme and all the builds support that theme. Be sure to check it out, and hopefully I'll see you at my exhibit there.
Here's a sneak peek:
Click image for fullsize
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Posted by: Allison in : Technology: Second LifeComments: [0]
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Defined tags for this entry: art, immersive web, sl6b, technology: second life, themes, virtual reality
The following is a short video from The Naval Undersea Warfare Center Division Newport and is a nice overview of some of the possibilities of virtual worlds and especially Second Life. Of particular note is the section where they discuss design and reconfiguration of vessels, something which is not possible in many virtual worlds due to the lack of user generated content control. This remains one of the big selling points of Second Life, although I don't understand why this aspect is not marketed more aggressively.Anyway, here's the video:
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Posted by: Allison in : Technology: Second LifeComments: [0]
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Defined tags for this entry: immersive web, marketing issues, technology: second life, united states navy, virtual worlds
Deloitte has released a report on the Venture Capital outlook, and the news isn't so great if you're anyone but China. Well perhaps it isn't as bad as all that, especially if we start to break down some of the actual numbers in the report. First, it is clear that China is expected to be a high growth area from a geographic perspective, and that tech will continue to be a growth area from a market perspective, and the US will continue to be a major player over the next 3-5 years, and "clean-tech" is the next wave.This of course can all be undermined as Silicon Valley stumbles onto the "next big thing" because it is the nature of the high tech market to invent, which is difficult to predict. Nonetheless, here are some interesting snippets from the report:
Five years ago, when the first Global Venture Capital Survey was conducted, the results indicated some interest in clean technologies and the life sciences. This year, regardless of fund size, we see tremendous interest from VCs in both of these sectors, especially clean technologies, where more than six out of 10 respondents anticipate their investment levels to increase and another three out of 10 will hold their investments at the same level.
Among U.S., UK and Israeli investors, about half expect to increase their investments in cleantech, while about seven out of 10 AP respondents and European respondents expect their cleantech investments to increase. Two-thirds of respondents from the Americas plan to increase their cleantech investments. This interest could be because we’re seeing an increase in government/political support for cleantech and VCs are looking more to government participation in both investments and incentives.
Here is the chart supporting the comments above:
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And what's the outlook for China and the rest of the world? Take a look:
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Make of it what you will. I do think that growth in China and India is going to happen, and I do think that clean-tech will be a hot area. But I also would watch for surprises, ideas which are brewing in garages and not yet ready for prime time. It should be fun.
The report can be downloaded by clicking here.
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Posted by: Allison in : MarketingComments: [0]
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Defined tags for this entry: china, deloitte, europe, india, marketing, silicon valley, trends, united states, venture capital
TechDirt has an interesting article on a new copyright case that involves the 1980's hit song Down Under by the band Men at Work. There are several weird aspects of this particular story, which underscore some of the problems inherent in the current copyright system.Namely:
1. The owner of the copyright who is claiming infringement against Men at Work is doing so with a song that was written in the 1930's
2. The song Down Under is well over 20 years old
3. The owner of the 1930's song bought the copyright in 2000 and waited nine years to file a claim
Here's what TechDirt has to say:
...an Australian music publishing firm, Larrikin Music, is suddenly accusing the Australian band, Men At Work, of "ripping off" a 1930s popular Austrlian children's song, "Kookaburra" with their hit song "Down Under." Why did it take so long? Well, Larrikin only gained the copyright in 2000, but that's still 9 years of nothing. Apparently, they only noticed the similarities when an Australian quiz show brought it up -- which certainly raises questions about any "harm" done by this (if there was any actual copying).
This does seem like a questionable use of copyright. First, why are songs that old not part of the public domain? Something seems very wrong about having copyright ownership last for generations. I can see copyright for life of the author, but the person who owns the current copyright had nothing to do at all with the creation of the song.
Second, given that no one did anything and that Down Under is well over 20 years old, why is there not some sort of statute of limitations? If it wasn't a concern to whomever owned the copyrights in question back when Down Under was a hit, why should it be an issue now?
I fully support copyright and IP protection, but this particular case seems to go beyond what is reasonable. But that's just my opinion.
Techdirt story is here.
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Posted by: Allison in : Marketing: IP RightsComments: [0]
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Defined tags for this entry: copyright abuse, down under, ip issues, kookaburra, marketing: ip rights, men at work
Do you use Second Life? LinkedIn? Facebook? Twitter? If you answered yes, then you are likely to be over 35 years old according to studies that are covered in an article over at Social Computing Journal.These demographics go totally against the notion that SL, Twitter, et al are filled with younger people (gen Y) and teens. In fact, gen Y and teens are almost totally absent from these platforms:
Facebook opened up, Second Life created a virtual world for everyone to live in, LinkedIn connected all the older white-collar professionals, Twitter jumped on the scene and let all the narcissists scream, "Look at me," and Facebook followed the trend with their new redesign.
But Generation Y is not inventing the new web. Older people are. The new web is all about hyper-connectivity, real-time updates, and living your life online. And mainstream twenty-somethings aren't buying into it.
Some of the details are eye opening, such as:
According to Comscore, the majority of Twitter users worldwide are 35 or older. Young adults 18-24 only make up 10.6% of the Twitter population in the US and are less likely than the average user to tweet. 45-54 year olds are actually 36 percent more likely than average to visit Twitter.
That is nothing compared to this:
Facebook is growing at an unparalleled speed, and the new adopters are older folks. The 35 to 54 Year old demographic grew at a rate of 276% over the last six months and the 55+ demographic grew more than 194% over the same time period, while 18-24 year olds only grew 20%.
Are you still holding that pre-conceived notion that the social web is overrun with youngsters? Not so:
A recent Accenture survey concluded that Baby boomers, defined in Accenture's survey as those 45 years old or older, are embracing popular consumer technology applications nearly 20 times faster than younger generations. Compared to a year ago, Gen Y consumers between the ages of 18 and 24, are decelerating their use of consumer electronics and related services including social networking, blogging, listening to podcasts and posting video on the Internet. Yet, there was a 67 percent increase among baby boomers reading blogs or listening to podcasts.
What does this all mean? Basically, if you drop the notion that social media is filled with young people and acknowledge that older (over 35) dominate the platforms, you can thus improve your marketing to capture those folks and become more effective. It's all about ROI, and the good news is that it is the over 35 people who have the money to spend.
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Posted by: Allison in : Technology: Social NetworkingComments: [0]
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Defined tags for this entry: baby boomers, demographics, facebook, gen y, marketing, second life, technology: social networking, twitter
May 1: Video: IDC 2009 Predictions
Here is a video from IDC discussing their 2009 predictions for IT. Since we're closing in on the halfway point to the year, it's interesting to examine how some of these predictions are faring. That we will do next week. For now, enjoy the video.Have a good weekend.
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The micro-blogging service Twitter is currently enjoying its day in the sun, basking in the warm glow of the hype portion of the Gartner Hype Cycle (see below for an image of the phases of the Hype Cycle). After all, in the past couple of weeks we've seen Oprah, CNN, and that 70's Show guy all hyping up Twitter as the next big thing.But is it? Although there are plenty of criticisms about the "business model" behind Twitter, I'm not going to add on to that pile. I understand that it has the potential to develop into a marketing data mining service, which if successful, could prove to be lucrative. But there is a danger signal on the horizon for Twitter, and it sounds very familiar. According to Nielsen Online:
Twitter has grown exponentially in the past few months with no small thanks to celebrity exposure. People are signing up in droves, and Twitter’s unique audience is up over 100 percent in March. But despite the hockey-stick growth chart, Twitter faces an uphill battle in making sure these flocks of new users are enticed to return to the nest.
Does this sound familiar? Remember the Second Life hype, the rush to SL, then the user retention problem? But while Second Life is showing signs of entering the Slope of Enlightenment, Twitter is showing these signs:
Currently, more than 60 percent of U.S. Twitter users fail to return the following month, or in other words, Twitter’s audience retention rate, or the percentage of a given month’s users who come back the following month, is currently about 40 percent. For most of the past 12 months, pre-Oprah, Twitter has languished below 30 percent retention.
To understand why this poses a problem for Twitter, check out the chart below. By plotting the minimum retention rates for different Internet audience sizes, it is clear that a retention rate of 40 percent will limit a site’s growth to about a 10 percent reach figure. To be clear, a high retention rate doesn’t guarantee a massive audience, but it is a prerequisite. There simply aren’t enough new users to make up for defecting ones after a certain point.
Therein lies the problem. For some people, Twitter is useful; however for a growing number of people who have already tried the service, it's something they have decided to abandon. The danger for Twitter is that it becomes a micro-blogging service for a few celebrities, or as Andrew Keen puts it "digital feudalism."
None of this means Twitter is going away anytime soon, however, I also won't be surprised if by the end of this year Twitter faces the hype backlash.
Gartner Hype Cycle
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Posted by: Allison in : MarketingComments: [0]
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When someone from the research firms Gartner or Forrester speak, the words are often treated as gospel, at least amongst those who are in the IT market sector. All of us use the research of these firms, to some extent, to understand and support our business direction. However, it is always good to look at the reports these firms produce with a critical eye, and to not accept everything at face value.So it is interesting to read this article from Intelligent Enterprise (IE) which opens up with a statement that pulls no punches:
My reaction to recent Gartner and Forrester analyst reports, as covered in Intelligent Enterprise articles, is that the firms are tarting up questionable research.
While I have been critical of some elements of some of the reports I've discussed on this blog, and totally critical of a few reports, my take on the matter has been that the reports usually are reaching the wrong conclusion(s) based on available data. However, the IE article takes the criticism further, and attacks the methodology:
Forrester's report, "Voice of the Customer: The Next Generation," does not seem simplistic, but I do get to wondering when Voice of the Customer research is based on interviews with "more than 20 companies" and at least 17 of the ones listed are VOC solution providers. I asked lead author Bruce Temkin, "How did you confirm their assertions with user organizations?" He did not respond. [note: bolded items are bolded in the source article. ]
The assertion in the IE article is that Gartner and Forrester rely too much on information from Solution Providers as the source of their research. The criticism might be valid, but on the other hand, solution providers should have some insight into emerging market spaces. However, this is a double-edged sword, and if their research is perceived as biased somehow in favor of SP's, then the perception of the reports can become sullied to a point where they are seen as little more than marketing collateral for the vendors in that space:
To help you in your assessment of Forrester's approach to research, consider Jeff Kelly's SearchDataManagement.com article, "Business intelligence software adoption lags BI vendors' perception." Kelly reports on a survey conducted by estimable BI analyst Nigel Pendse that found, as reported by Kelly, "8% of workers at organizations that have deployed BI tools make use of them, on average, but vendors put that figure among their customers at 14%. Likewise, 27% of users rate their vendors' BI support services as 'excellent,' while the vendors themselves believe they are doing an excellent job in 51% of cases." Kelly quotes Pendse, "'I think the vendors are deluding themselves. They genuinely think their products are better than they are.' He added that many vendors don't actually interact with their customers enough to truly understand their deployment and use issues."
Myself, I believe that Pendse's analysis applies broadly to all IT domains, which would include the VOC arena covered by the recent Forrester VOC report. If I am correct, what should we infer about these research findings based, apparently, almost exclusively on vendor interviews?
Now I won't go as far as IE does in criticizing Gartner and Forrester because I do believe there is valuable insight to be gleaned from their research. As with anything though, one has to not fall into the logical fallacy of doing an appeal to authority, in this case Gartner and Forrester, when building a business plan. The research they provide should be one component in any plan, but personally I don't use it as the foundation for my plans.
As for the IE criticisms of the firms and their methodologies, read the full article and make your own judgement. Mine is that the article may be a bit too harsh, but that's just my opinion.
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Apr 28: Second Life: Positive Media ...
If you are a current user of Second Life, you probably already know that Linden Lab plans to separate "adult content" from the general grid. While this move has been met with a large hue and cry from part of the current user base, the press coverage of the changes appears to be yielding positive results. Whether or not you believe that separating adult content on the grid is a good or bad thing, what is important is that the PR, at least initially, seems to be working. In addition, there are valid business reasons for the changes, so consider that the very survival of SL as a viable platform may be dependent on a successful transition to this new model. Here are a few samples from the past few days that address the topic:
From the Salt Lake Tribune:
Second Life is getting a little less steamy for people who want to use the virtual world for a myriad of PG-rated experiences, such as taking classes, prototyping buildings or designing virtual goods.
...
Second Life's users, who must already be 18 or over, will be able to block adult content in their searches, similar to the way Google allows "SafeSearch" filtering for images or text by blocking Web pages with explicit sexual content. Unlike Google, though, Second Life will let people specifically search for adult-only items, excluding everything else.
From PC World:
Moving mature content to a gulag will be an important first step in turning Second Life into what it once promised to be: a limitless world where everyone is free to explore. Of course, that won't be the only step. Take away all the sexed-up silliness, and there's not a lot left. To complete the transformation, Linden Lab will have to focus on creating a there there. Hopeful as the idea of a user-created world may be, there are too few users creating anything of note in Second Life, and there's still very little to do if you're not into putting on a digital fashion show or playing around with goofy gesture scripts.
...
But if Linden Lab can put Second Life's tawdry past behind it and get focused on creating a compelling user experience that incents ordinary people to keep logging in, the company may yet have a shot at delivering on the promise of virtual reality. While the demands of users may be complex and varied, the demands of businesses are simpler: Give us an audience that we can sell stuff to, and don't tarnish our brand images with a torrential downpour of giant phallic symbols.
From PC Magazine:
Existing and future content categorized as adult will be moved to its own "continent" within Second Life. Linden Lab is still in the process of figuring out specifics for the migration to this porn island of sorts, and will publish guidelines later this quarter.
From the BBC:
Second Life has always been an "anything goes" environment. But the tawdry Sin City is about to get cleaned up.
Linden Lab, the firm behind Second Life, is about to enter the world of "regulation".
Those who want to engage in the digital blending of pornographic pixels will now have to do so on a standalone "continent" built purely for such pursuits.
The important thing to remember in all this is that Second Life has developed a perception in the mind of the mainstream press as being little more than a seedy place for virtual porn and escorts. While some may be quick to point out that there is indeed more to SL than porn, what matters is public perception, and that is exactly what Linden Lab is trying to repair with these changes. Further, if you are basing a business on the Second Life platform, consider this:
.
..the devolutionary spiral left many of Linden Lab's most influential business customers feeling burned and looking silly for all the time and treasure they spent constructing ethereal online palaces that nobody visited. That's particularly sad, because it not only hurts Second Life's chances at a recovery, but also poisons the well for any other innovators looking to take a crack at building on the same model.
What are the primary reasons for the changes? It's simple, attract those who have gone to Facebook and Twitter:
Last month unique "residents" with repeat logins users hit 732,526, up on the previous month and the world held a peak of about 88,000 users concurrently.
The figures may be pointing up but they remain exceedingly modest next to the successes of Facebook, with 200m users, and Twitter, with 10m users, both of which have emerged in the time it has taken Second Life to go from hot to not.
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Posted by: Allison in : Technology: Second LifeComments: [0]
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Defined tags for this entry: adult changes, business in second life, linden lab, technology: second life
Predictions and prognostications from analysts are always interesting especially given that the nature of high tech is to look forward towards innovation. Whether the predictions actually come to pass is another story, but nevertheless when a new top ten list comes out, I like to examine it and analyze to determine if it tracks with the trends that I am seeing at the present time.So the latest list I've run across is courtesy of Intel, and lists their top ten technology predictions for the next decade. So let's take a look:
Prediction One - new classes of portable devices with ten times more battery life
There's nothing to dispute with this one, given that efficiencies should improve over time, and battery technology should improve as well. But, we don't know what portable devices will even look like or be capable of in ten years, so this is one of those that is subject to change as circumstances change.
Prediction two - low-cost silicon photonics for faster, more reliable data transmission
Intel is probably in a better position than most on this one, so I'll have to believe what they say.
Prediction three - new heights of realism in visual computing
Prediction four - realistic computer generated images
These two are similar, and I'd have to agree. As we move forward, especially into 3d landscapes, the boundaries between reality and computer imagery will become more and more blurred.
Prediction five - malware will become a thing of the past
Erm, yeah, I'll believe it when I see it.
Prediction six - personal internet devices will be truly personal
Very likely to happen. Many components of the iPhone are already showing this trend.
Prediction seven - interactive computing devices make 'composable computing' a reality
This one I'm not so sure about. Intel's description of it ("impromptu assembly of a logical computer from wireless components that are nearby") sounds too much like the vision of free metro wifi. In short, this one sounds idealistic rather than realistic.
Prediction eight - next-generation TV will not be about pixels
Perhaps, but perhaps flat 2d screens will be a thing of the past too. This one doesn't excite me much, unless we start talking about holographic viewing, which may be where Intel is going with this, but they don't specifically state it as such.
Prediction nine - seamlessly connected 3-D worlds
Without a doubt this will be true. Coupled with higher bandwidth and ever more realistic graphics, I believe the immersive capabilities of the network will be a big emerging area in the next ten years.
Prediction ten - and finally a spectrum revolution is looming
This one may already be true, but yes, it will happen in all likelihood. So there you have it, Intel's top ten for the next ten years. What do you think?
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