When the (traditional) media decides to cover Second Life, it's often on the negative or sensational side, at least since it has been since the hype of 2007 faded, during which time these very same media outlets were claiming Second Life to the the Next Big Thing. This is meant neither to bash traditional media (whose job it is to sell advertising space by attracting readers, hence the need to spice up material), nor is it meant to defend Second Life. Rather, it is to point out how difficult it can be to get an accurate assessment on the current state of affairs at Second Life (or any other technology) from traditional media reports.

The fundamental problem is that objective reports do not attract casual readers, and thus, dampen the number of readers, which of course dampens advertising revenue. Fair enough, that is the model, and it is the job of the marketing team at Linden Lab or at Twitter or at Facebook or at (insert your favorite tech company name here) to counteract or use media coverage in their favor. But how do we, as interested end users, gain objective insight?

The answer is it takes research and building your own picture of the what is really occurring, and to not rely on one or two traditional media reports. Case in point is this recent article from the BBC covering Second Life.

Once upon a time Second Life had a Twitter level of hype. Even those without a cartoon version of themselves couldn't plead ignorance due to blanket coverage in newspapers and magazines.

True, but of course the BBC had no part in the hype, right? Also, they mention Twitter and hype. We shall see if Twitter is immune to the laws of the Gartner Hype Cycle.

A year later, newspapers fell over themselves to cover it, devoting many column inches in their business, technology and lifestyle sections to profiles and trend pieces.

Just newspapers? Really?

But just as quickly as it had flared, media interest ebbed away. References plummeted by 40% in 2008 and dropped further this year. And businesses diverted their resources back to real life.

American Apparel closed its shop just one year after opening. Reuters pulled its correspondent in October 2008. When asked about his virtual experience, Pasick says: "It isn't a subject we like to revisit."

Note to BBC: this is classic Gartner Hype Cycle behavior. Of course you can't be bothered to examine that in your article as it makes for somewhat pedantic reading, still, if you really want to know what is happening with Second Life, it is critical material to understand.

"You could go and open these stores and no-one would turn up," he says.

"They would have 20 to 30 people there when it opened, and after that no-one would bother going in there again. It just wasn't worth the spend."

The "spend" varied from business to business. A retailer like American Apparel might spend £10,000 on designers, as well as storage space from Linden Lab, to build a virtual store.

But at the peak of the hype, the cost of purchasing or building property was worth it.

Okay, here's the nub of the problem. Real world companies thought they could go into Second Life and attract more revenue. However, when they did not, Second Life was deemed a "failure" because, as we all know, existing corporations are the only businesses that matter. Let's ignore the fact that SL is a platform, and as a platform, it is helping to launch new businesses that understand how to market in the virtual world, and understand what to sell.

And there is a fundamental question about whether Second Life is a game or a social networking site.

"It's not a really good social space," Mr Hammersley says. "Not as good as Facebook or any general online forum.

Really? You don't understand what Second Life is? Try reading this post of mine from 2007 and maybe you'll get some insight. I'm not claiming to have all the answers, but I see no mention of most of what I, and others, have written about in regards to what Second Life is (and isn't).

Simon Gardner, a 23-year-old freelance social media marketer, believed the hype in 2007.

Hmm.

"It was a real pain. You have to learn how to control things and read manuals on how to get to islands and get off. Half the time you're just wandering around talking to weirdos."

After three months Mr Gardner became bored and left.

What can I say? Bored? Having to read manuals to learn a new technology?

Is this marketing professional out to play games or is he there to analyze and understand and develop value? How much real world experience in technology does Mr. Gardner have? What social media marketing professional would not do their homework before launching into something as new as Second Life was in 2007 (and still is for that matter), and thus understand that the road ahead is going to be work? What marketing professional would appear to not be cognizant of the Gartner Hype Cycle model?

Certainly the article tries to make it appear like Mr. Gardner was and is an expert on this platform. But he only spent an entire three months on it, which seems to me to be the position of someone who was expecting a quick win from Second Life, as opposed to someone who has an interest in developing new markets. I could be wrong, but certainly the article helps to paint that picture.

"Monthly repeat login - a metric we use to gauge the number of users engaged with Second Life - grew 23% from September 2008 to September 2009," says Mark Kingdon, chief executive of Linden Lab.

On average, a million people log in each month, he says. In October 2009, 75,000 of those were in the UK.

And the site continues to evolve, Mr Kingdon says. It launched a new product earlier this month geared towards businesses, and will soon be launching more user-friendly and intuitive software.

And many companies and organisations are still holding on to their virtual selves - 1,400 of them says Mr Kingdon. IBM continues to be an avid supporter of Second Life.

What's this? Actual data in the article which seems counter to all the negative coverage early in the same article? Okay, I'm being critical here, and I do give the BBC credit for including this information in the article. What is missing, at least for me, is information about what has already been announced. Where are the stats that show how the SL economy is doing? Where is the information about the enterprise version of SL that has been announced? Where is the coverage or statements from successful businesses (and there are plenty of them) who are doing well in SL?

Here's the important point. Second Life is well past the hype phase, and is well past the Trough of Disillusionment phase, both of which are heavily represented in this article. Here are the phases as outlined by Gartner:


What are the 5 phases of a Hype Cycle?

1. "Technology Trigger"
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

5. "Plateau of Productivity"
A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

What is important to note here are the clear trends: in early 2007 SL experienced the Peak of Inflated Expectations. By the end of 2007 the Trough of Disillusionment was setting in. As 2008 continued, those who remained in SL and stuck with it experimented through the Slope of Enlightenment, a phase which is still in place. It's debatable whether or not the final phase is in place, and what that will look like, but it is clear by examining the Gartner model, that what happened to SL is not surprising, and that by surviving the hype bubble, it will have real value.

So now, in 2009 marketers have turned their attention to Twitter and Facebook, which are clearly in the Peak of Inflated Expectations phase, and at some point will face their own shake out. Todays popular kid on the technology block is tomorrows forgotten one. But take note, virtual worlds, including Second Life, are not dead and buried. Rather, they are being reshaped into something more focused.


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