It is the time of the year again when not only do we celebrate the holiday season, but we also start to get the major analyst predictions for the 2010 IT market. In this post we'll list out the IDC 2010 Top Ten predictions. I will follow up with an analysis of these predictions during the week.

As a treat, I will also include IDC's 2009 top ten predictions, and if I have time this week, I'll examine just how accurate they were.

Here are the top ten for 2010 from IDC:



And here are the 2009 predictions:




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When the (traditional) media decides to cover Second Life, it's often on the negative or sensational side, at least since it has been since the hype of 2007 faded, during which time these very same media outlets were claiming Second Life to the the Next Big Thing. This is meant neither to bash traditional media (whose job it is to sell advertising space by attracting readers, hence the need to spice up material), nor is it meant to defend Second Life. Rather, it is to point out how difficult it can be to get an accurate assessment on the current state of affairs at Second Life (or any other technology) from traditional media reports.

The fundamental problem is that objective reports do not attract casual readers, and thus, dampen the number of readers, which of course dampens advertising revenue. Fair enough, that is the model, and it is the job of the marketing team at Linden Lab or at Twitter or at Facebook or at (insert your favorite tech company name here) to counteract or use media coverage in their favor. But how do we, as interested end users, gain objective insight?

The answer is it takes research and building your own picture of the what is really occurring, and to not rely on one or two traditional media reports. Case in point is this recent article from the BBC covering Second Life.

Once upon a time Second Life had a Twitter level of hype. Even those without a cartoon version of themselves couldn't plead ignorance due to blanket coverage in newspapers and magazines.

True, but of course the BBC had no part in the hype, right? Also, they mention Twitter and hype. We shall see if Twitter is immune to the laws of the Gartner Hype Cycle.

A year later, newspapers fell over themselves to cover it, devoting many column inches in their business, technology and lifestyle sections to profiles and trend pieces.

Just newspapers? Really?

But just as quickly as it had flared, media interest ebbed away. References plummeted by 40% in 2008 and dropped further this year. And businesses diverted their resources back to real life.

American Apparel closed its shop just one year after opening. Reuters pulled its correspondent in October 2008. When asked about his virtual experience, Pasick says: "It isn't a subject we like to revisit."

Note to BBC: this is classic Gartner Hype Cycle behavior. Of course you can't be bothered to examine that in your article as it makes for somewhat pedantic reading, still, if you really want to know what is happening with Second Life, it is critical material to understand.

"You could go and open these stores and no-one would turn up," he says.

"They would have 20 to 30 people there when it opened, and after that no-one would bother going in there again. It just wasn't worth the spend."

The "spend" varied from business to business. A retailer like American Apparel might spend £10,000 on designers, as well as storage space from Linden Lab, to build a virtual store.

But at the peak of the hype, the cost of purchasing or building property was worth it.

Okay, here's the nub of the problem. Real world companies thought they could go into Second Life and attract more revenue. However, when they did not, Second Life was deemed a "failure" because, as we all know, existing corporations are the only businesses that matter. Let's ignore the fact that SL is a platform, and as a platform, it is helping to launch new businesses that understand how to market in the virtual world, and understand what to sell.

And there is a fundamental question about whether Second Life is a game or a social networking site.

"It's not a really good social space," Mr Hammersley says. "Not as good as Facebook or any general online forum.

Really? You don't understand what Second Life is? Try reading this post of mine from 2007 and maybe you'll get some insight. I'm not claiming to have all the answers, but I see no mention of most of what I, and others, have written about in regards to what Second Life is (and isn't).

Simon Gardner, a 23-year-old freelance social media marketer, believed the hype in 2007.

Hmm.

"It was a real pain. You have to learn how to control things and read manuals on how to get to islands and get off. Half the time you're just wandering around talking to weirdos."

After three months Mr Gardner became bored and left.

What can I say? Bored? Having to read manuals to learn a new technology?

Is this marketing professional out to play games or is he there to analyze and understand and develop value? How much real world experience in technology does Mr. Gardner have? What social media marketing professional would not do their homework before launching into something as new as Second Life was in 2007 (and still is for that matter), and thus understand that the road ahead is going to be work? What marketing professional would appear to not be cognizant of the Gartner Hype Cycle model?

Certainly the article tries to make it appear like Mr. Gardner was and is an expert on this platform. But he only spent an entire three months on it, which seems to me to be the position of someone who was expecting a quick win from Second Life, as opposed to someone who has an interest in developing new markets. I could be wrong, but certainly the article helps to paint that picture.

"Monthly repeat login - a metric we use to gauge the number of users engaged with Second Life - grew 23% from September 2008 to September 2009," says Mark Kingdon, chief executive of Linden Lab.

On average, a million people log in each month, he says. In October 2009, 75,000 of those were in the UK.

And the site continues to evolve, Mr Kingdon says. It launched a new product earlier this month geared towards businesses, and will soon be launching more user-friendly and intuitive software.

And many companies and organisations are still holding on to their virtual selves - 1,400 of them says Mr Kingdon. IBM continues to be an avid supporter of Second Life.

What's this? Actual data in the article which seems counter to all the negative coverage early in the same article? Okay, I'm being critical here, and I do give the BBC credit for including this information in the article. What is missing, at least for me, is information about what has already been announced. Where are the stats that show how the SL economy is doing? Where is the information about the enterprise version of SL that has been announced? Where is the coverage or statements from successful businesses (and there are plenty of them) who are doing well in SL?

Here's the important point. Second Life is well past the hype phase, and is well past the Trough of Disillusionment phase, both of which are heavily represented in this article. Here are the phases as outlined by Gartner:


What are the 5 phases of a Hype Cycle?

1. "Technology Trigger"
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

5. "Plateau of Productivity"
A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

What is important to note here are the clear trends: in early 2007 SL experienced the Peak of Inflated Expectations. By the end of 2007 the Trough of Disillusionment was setting in. As 2008 continued, those who remained in SL and stuck with it experimented through the Slope of Enlightenment, a phase which is still in place. It's debatable whether or not the final phase is in place, and what that will look like, but it is clear by examining the Gartner model, that what happened to SL is not surprising, and that by surviving the hype bubble, it will have real value.

So now, in 2009 marketers have turned their attention to Twitter and Facebook, which are clearly in the Peak of Inflated Expectations phase, and at some point will face their own shake out. Todays popular kid on the technology block is tomorrows forgotten one. But take note, virtual worlds, including Second Life, are not dead and buried. Rather, they are being reshaped into something more focused.


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Cnet is covering an interesting report on the state of virtual goods. While nothing in the report is particularly mind-bending, the thing that is interesting is that it indicates the possible development of a nascent reseller market for virtual goods.

We see these sorts of activities in Second Life, some legal and some illegal, so this isn't a total surprise to anyone who has an SL based content business. Whether the reseller operates via an official affiliate channel or via the numerous yard sales that pop up every week, or on the illegal side, via stolen content, this activity has been operating within the context of SL for quite some time, and if the report is to be believed, is spreading to other platforms:

The research revealed that in-game currency is the most frequently sold digital good from player to player and that two out of three sellers sold in-game currency in the last 12 months, earning a median of $22. PlaySpan, a provider of monetization and payment solutions for games and virtual worlds and sponsor of the research, considers that to be good news as its platform enables game developers to provide player to player marketplaces for their players. In addition, the PlaySpan Marketplace currently provides a secondary market for IMVU players to buy and sell goods as well.

The full story can be viewed by clicking here.


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The Creative Group recently released the results of their primary research into the question of which areas within marketing are expected to experience the best growth and which areas are expected to not do so well. I mention this report because to me it acts as a barometer of sorts to tell us in general where some of the hot points are likely to be in regards to marketing our own respective businesses.

The top three growth areas, in order, are (1) Web Design/Production; (2) Creative/Art Direction; (3) Interactive. As for the worst areas for growth, we have (1) Public Relations; (2) Media Services.

The Creative Group states:

“The hiring of creative professionals often signals that a company is preparing for growth by increasing its investment in advertising and marketing initiatives,” said Megan Slabinski, executive director of The Creative Group. “Many firms are particularly interested in expanding their digital presence. This is an area in which a number of companies continued to invest even in the downturn, and as the economy improves, they will want to build their capabilities further.”

Slabinski cautioned, however, that advertising and marketing executives are taking a judicious approach to hiring. “Businesses often opt to bring in people on a project basis to avoid layoffs if the economy loses momentum,” she said. “Supplementing the core team with freelance professionals allows companies to more easily adjust staffing levels as conditions change.”

What does this tell us? Essentially that the web and digital design is going to be the focus area, ranking in even higher importance to areas such as branding and product management. Not that those areas are no longer important, but rather, at least for the next year, design skills are king and where we should consider if it fits into our own business priorities.

Here's the chart:



For the source click here.

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It's been quite some time since I've talked about Gartner reporting on virtual worlds, so it's timely that they just issued a report identifying the six key things enterprises need to do in order to get control over their employees virtual worlds avatars. There are two reasons I find this report interesting.

The first reason is the content, which I'll cover momentarily. The second reason is that with Gartner covering virtual worlds it's a salvo that the technology is at a point where it's being taken seriously by the enterprise. However, we'll discuss that at another time. For now let's look at the actual information from Gartner on this topic.

Out of the gate here's Gartner's opening statement:

Avatars are creeping into business environments and will have far reaching implications for enterprises, from policy to dress code, behavior and computing platform requirements, according to Gartner, Inc. Gartner predicts that by year-end 2013, 70 percent of enterprises will have behavior guidelines and dress codes established for all employees who have avatars associated with the enterprise inside a virtual environment.

2013 is also the date that GigaOm Pro reports that the virtual worlds market will be at $8 to $10 billion annually, as I wrote about yesterday. So while the market is beginning to heat, these are some of the specific items Gartner is mentioning:

1. Help users learn to control their avatars. For most people, controlling and using an avatar is not viewed as intuitive or easy, but like any skill, after a few sessions a user can master the basics. The platform being used can also be an important factor, but improvements in optimizing virtual environment memory have lessened this issue.

For example, anyone who is new to Second Life can attest to the steep learning curve, especially around avatar control. While we live in a real 3d space, our computer interaction to date has largely been via 2d interfaces and specialized games for 3d. A 3d virtual world in which an avatar is completely unhindered by the type of pre-programmed movements inherent in 3d games is a completely different experience. So yes, this is important.

2. Recognize that users will have a personal affinity with their avatar. Users often take pride in their avatar and dress them up or down. For enterprises, this is where dress codes can come into play, if the avatar is being used for company business. Early efforts with avatar appearance have often been viewed as an inhibitor to adoption but this issue should fade as quicker and easier methods of configuring avatars become available.

Indeed, the ability to personalize an avatar is as important as being able to personalize ones workspace. The avatar is an extension of the real person.

3. Educate users on the risks and responsibilities of reputation management. Organizations can avoid problems with employees mixing their personal and professional avatar interaction and activities by suggesting that employees use one avatar for their work interactions and another avatar for personal activities.

Well, ask most experienced Second Life users about the phenomenon of alts. I think to an extent this is important, but it really depends on what the person is doing in their personal time.

4. Extend the code of conduct to include avatars in 3-D virtual environments. Just as with social networking sites and individual Web pages where employees participate as representatives of their employer, an avatar's behavior and appearance are a reflection of the individual and the company they work for. Companies with codes of conduct for other Web activities, such as blogging, should be able to extend those policies into virtual environments. However, because 3-D environments add the visual dimension, they will need to make sure that their policies also cover dress codes.

This makes sense especially when someone is representing a business. There has to be a code of conduct in place.

5. Explore the business case for avatars. Justifying avatar use in a business setting is becoming easier, in part because avatar use is gaining wider acceptance. Training and virtual meetings are the top use cases, and one of the main reasons for the increased use of avatars is cost.

Also remember we are still early in terms of discovering all the possibilities of virtual worlds, especially as more augmented reality solutions come to market. So this is an area that will continue to be dynamic I think.

6. Encourage usage and enterprise pilots. Looking ahead, one of the biggest uses of avatars appears to be for online meetings. Web meetings are emerging as an important new use case for virtual environments, and this may be a good point at which to start learning about the issues and opportunities surrounding users and avatars. Enterprises may find that they have a willing and ready population of users who are familiar with avatars and their usage. Pilot testing is still the best option for starting to understand the issues that enterprises will face with increased avatar adoption.

This last one is fairly standard for new technologies as they are adopted into the enterprise. In any event, it will be interesting to see what Gartner has to say as this market continues to evolve.

For the full article click here


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Included below are a few videos which discuss some of the latest trends with regards to the Gartner Hype Cycle. In case you are unfamiliar with the theory of the hype cycle, I've also included a video which discusses the concept.

The first video is from the SLCC conference that happened in May, and feature Mark Kingdon (M Linden), CEO of Linden Lab, which discusses the current status of Second Life within the hype cycle. Clearly his chart outlines what we have covered in this blog in the past, which is that in mid-2007 Second Life entered the Trough, and has since begun a slow steady climb back to relevance. What will emerge is a more focused solution, and for those who have stuck with Second Life through this period, it should be positive.

The second video is from Gartner, and discusses the 2009 e-Commerce hype cycle. I've included this because it has relevance to the first video, namely, that e-Commerce is being seen as a way of cutting costs. Interestingly though, there are a number of highly hyped companies in this space, but Second Life is not amongst these. Clearly though, there is an e-Commerce aspect to SL, which is still being ferreted out, so it remains to be seen how this space will develop.

On the last video, you only need to watch the first few minutes to gain an understanding of the hype cycle.








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Up until this point in time, if one wanted to work in the Information Technology sector, the usual path was to gain a computer science degree and deeply develop and aptitude in topics such coding or systems architecture or network architecture.

According to a new Gartner report, however, that is going to change. Their take is that the new talents required "will blend business, artistic and technical skills.” Certainly if you look at emerging areas such as video, 3d design, etc., artistic skills are high on the list. Also given the rapid changes the web enables, it doesn't make sense to simply rely on your technical prowess to get you through challenges that are both technical and business related.

For their part, Gartner has selected four key descriptions for the nextgen IT worker:

Web User Experience Roles
User experience roles enable users to effectively consume the applications and information delivered on the Web. Although the role of interface designer has been around since the inception of computing, with consumerization and the densely populated and competitive Web environment, this role is often the critical success factor in a product or service

This sounds like a blend of web designer and HUI expertise. Certainly as we move towards more cloud computing solutions, this does become important.

Behavioral Analysis Roles
These roles are aimed at understanding, responding to and exploiting human behavior on the Web and how it may mirror and differ from behaviors in the physical world. Some key roles that will interpret and leverage human behavior are Web psychologists who are becoming increasingly important to product development and marketing, community designers who are responsible for architecting organization-owned communities, and Web and social network miners and analysts who focus on discovering, understanding and exploiting the social and behavioral dynamics of Web communities.

This one sounds a bit crass, but essentially this is what marketing already does. However, what Gartner seems to be saying is that every business, in any sector, is going to have to blend marketing with your web presence. This is a logical extension of where we are heading, and success will hinge on how effectively your web applications are designed and deployed, which is not just a technical exercise anymore.

Information Specialists
With the volume and diversity of content generated, posted and modified on the Web, there is a rising need for information anthropologists who trace the origin, history, and evolution of Web content. Their objectives range from providing the history of content or information to spotting fraudulent or modified images, audio and texts. Information anthropologists may therefore contribute to legal analysis or to processes where intellectual property or information quality and integrity are at risk.

Gartner is acknowledging that IP protection is no longer just the purview of the legal department. If you place an image on your website, or audio, or embed a YouTube video, do you know if it is properly licensed? If not, you need people in place who do understand these things and can act on them in real time.

Digital Lifestyle Experts
These experts will aid individuals and groups (for example, executive management, technology or marketing teams) to become more digitally aware, connected, effective, and sophisticated. A digital lifestyle expert may also assist or stand in for their clients in their Web endeavors — defining target digital profiles, building out a digital image or personal brand — as well as helping wired users achieve the digital status they aspire to. As such, key roles will include digital persona consultants and personal brand advisers.

Personalization. Don't hide behind your website!

The summary is this:

“The future is solidly connected to the Web and new work streams clearly need to arise to support this,” said Ms. Harris. “Creative, artistic and clever people will develop the early iterations of these new jobs. This will enable businesses and government to take early advantage of new capabilities and develop them into mainstream skills.”

Indeed.

The report can be found by clicking here


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Here's a great video on the topic of business operations and motivation. This is a great discussion on how we might better motivate employees and peers in the business context.

Sit back and enjoy.





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By now you may have read the various articles floating around the web today covering the latest Forrester report which states that things are worse than expected, but, things should improve by the end of the year.

Of course one has to wonder about the prognostications, but if they are anywhere close it will look like this:

The analyst firm reduced its forecast for 2009 information technology spending from a 3 percent decline to a 10.6 percent decline, but it's the hitting bottom, it said. Spending should return to growth in the fourth quarter in the United States, and in the first half of 2010 in Europe and Asia, Forrester said, basing its forecast on newly collected data.

"The big drops are not precursors to further declines," said Andrew Bartels, a principal analyst at Forrester. "Rather, we think they are evidence of a temporary pause in U.S. tech purchases, which we expect to start recovering in the fourth quarter, as businesses realize that they overreacted in the first quarter."

Anyway, checking in with Gartner, they also seem slightly more postive as indicated in the following video. In any event, it's tough out there, so it's a great time to innovate and get prepared for an upturn somewhere down the road.





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Deloitte has released a report on the Venture Capital outlook, and the news isn't so great if you're anyone but China. Well perhaps it isn't as bad as all that, especially if we start to break down some of the actual numbers in the report. First, it is clear that China is expected to be a high growth area from a geographic perspective, and that tech will continue to be a growth area from a market perspective, and the US will continue to be a major player over the next 3-5 years, and "clean-tech" is the next wave.

This of course can all be undermined as Silicon Valley stumbles onto the "next big thing" because it is the nature of the high tech market to invent, which is difficult to predict. Nonetheless, here are some interesting snippets from the report:

Five years ago, when the first Global Venture Capital Survey was conducted, the results indicated some interest in clean technologies and the life sciences. This year, regardless of fund size, we see tremendous interest from VCs in both of these sectors, especially clean technologies, where more than six out of 10 respondents anticipate their investment levels to increase and another three out of 10 will hold their investments at the same level.

Among U.S., UK and Israeli investors, about half expect to increase their investments in cleantech, while about seven out of 10 AP respondents and European respondents expect their cleantech investments to increase. Two-thirds of respondents from the Americas plan to increase their cleantech investments. This interest could be because we’re seeing an increase in government/political support for cleantech and VCs are looking more to government participation in both investments and incentives.

Here is the chart supporting the comments above:





And what's the outlook for China and the rest of the world? Take a look:




Make of it what you will. I do think that growth in China and India is going to happen, and I do think that clean-tech will be a hot area. But I also would watch for surprises, ideas which are brewing in garages and not yet ready for prime time. It should be fun.

The report can be downloaded by clicking here.


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TechDirt has an interesting article on a new copyright case that involves the 1980's hit song Down Under by the band Men at Work. There are several weird aspects of this particular story, which underscore some of the problems inherent in the current copyright system.

Namely:

1. The owner of the copyright who is claiming infringement against Men at Work is doing so with a song that was written in the 1930's

2. The song Down Under is well over 20 years old

3. The owner of the 1930's song bought the copyright in 2000 and waited nine years to file a claim


Here's what TechDirt has to say:

...an Australian music publishing firm, Larrikin Music, is suddenly accusing the Australian band, Men At Work, of "ripping off" a 1930s popular Austrlian children's song, "Kookaburra" with their hit song "Down Under." Why did it take so long? Well, Larrikin only gained the copyright in 2000, but that's still 9 years of nothing. Apparently, they only noticed the similarities when an Australian quiz show brought it up -- which certainly raises questions about any "harm" done by this (if there was any actual copying).

This does seem like a questionable use of copyright. First, why are songs that old not part of the public domain? Something seems very wrong about having copyright ownership last for generations. I can see copyright for life of the author, but the person who owns the current copyright had nothing to do at all with the creation of the song.

Second, given that no one did anything and that Down Under is well over 20 years old, why is there not some sort of statute of limitations? If it wasn't a concern to whomever owned the copyrights in question back when Down Under was a hit, why should it be an issue now?

I fully support copyright and IP protection, but this particular case seems to go beyond what is reasonable. But that's just my opinion.

Techdirt story is here.


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Here is a video from IDC discussing their 2009 predictions for IT. Since we're closing in on the halfway point to the year, it's interesting to examine how some of these predictions are faring. That we will do next week. For now, enjoy the video.

Have a good weekend.





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The micro-blogging service Twitter is currently enjoying its day in the sun, basking in the warm glow of the hype portion of the Gartner Hype Cycle (see below for an image of the phases of the Hype Cycle). After all, in the past couple of weeks we've seen Oprah, CNN, and that 70's Show guy all hyping up Twitter as the next big thing.

But is it? Although there are plenty of criticisms about the "business model" behind Twitter, I'm not going to add on to that pile. I understand that it has the potential to develop into a marketing data mining service, which if successful, could prove to be lucrative. But there is a danger signal on the horizon for Twitter, and it sounds very familiar. According to Nielsen Online:

Twitter has grown exponentially in the past few months with no small thanks to celebrity exposure. People are signing up in droves, and Twitter’s unique audience is up over 100 percent in March. But despite the hockey-stick growth chart, Twitter faces an uphill battle in making sure these flocks of new users are enticed to return to the nest.

Does this sound familiar? Remember the Second Life hype, the rush to SL, then the user retention problem? But while Second Life is showing signs of entering the Slope of Enlightenment, Twitter is showing these signs:

Currently, more than 60 percent of U.S. Twitter users fail to return the following month, or in other words, Twitter’s audience retention rate, or the percentage of a given month’s users who come back the following month, is currently about 40 percent. For most of the past 12 months, pre-Oprah, Twitter has languished below 30 percent retention.

To understand why this poses a problem for Twitter, check out the chart below. By plotting the minimum retention rates for different Internet audience sizes, it is clear that a retention rate of 40 percent will limit a site’s growth to about a 10 percent reach figure. To be clear, a high retention rate doesn’t guarantee a massive audience, but it is a prerequisite. There simply aren’t enough new users to make up for defecting ones after a certain point.

Therein lies the problem. For some people, Twitter is useful; however for a growing number of people who have already tried the service, it's something they have decided to abandon. The danger for Twitter is that it becomes a micro-blogging service for a few celebrities, or as Andrew Keen puts it "digital feudalism."

None of this means Twitter is going away anytime soon, however, I also won't be surprised if by the end of this year Twitter faces the hype backlash.



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When someone from the research firms Gartner or Forrester speak, the words are often treated as gospel, at least amongst those who are in the IT market sector. All of us use the research of these firms, to some extent, to understand and support our business direction. However, it is always good to look at the reports these firms produce with a critical eye, and to not accept everything at face value.

So it is interesting to read this article from Intelligent Enterprise (IE) which opens up with a statement that pulls no punches:

My reaction to recent Gartner and Forrester analyst reports, as covered in Intelligent Enterprise articles, is that the firms are tarting up questionable research.

While I have been critical of some elements of some of the reports I've discussed on this blog, and totally critical of a few reports, my take on the matter has been that the reports usually are reaching the wrong conclusion(s) based on available data. However, the IE article takes the criticism further, and attacks the methodology:

Forrester's report, "Voice of the Customer: The Next Generation," does not seem simplistic, but I do get to wondering when Voice of the Customer research is based on interviews with "more than 20 companies" and at least 17 of the ones listed are VOC solution providers. I asked lead author Bruce Temkin, "How did you confirm their assertions with user organizations?" He did not respond. [note: bolded items are bolded in the source article. ]

The assertion in the IE article is that Gartner and Forrester rely too much on information from Solution Providers as the source of their research. The criticism might be valid, but on the other hand, solution providers should have some insight into emerging market spaces. However, this is a double-edged sword, and if their research is perceived as biased somehow in favor of SP's, then the perception of the reports can become sullied to a point where they are seen as little more than marketing collateral for the vendors in that space:

To help you in your assessment of Forrester's approach to research, consider Jeff Kelly's SearchDataManagement.com article, "Business intelligence software adoption lags BI vendors' perception." Kelly reports on a survey conducted by estimable BI analyst Nigel Pendse that found, as reported by Kelly, "8% of workers at organizations that have deployed BI tools make use of them, on average, but vendors put that figure among their customers at 14%. Likewise, 27% of users rate their vendors' BI support services as 'excellent,' while the vendors themselves believe they are doing an excellent job in 51% of cases." Kelly quotes Pendse, "'I think the vendors are deluding themselves. They genuinely think their products are better than they are.' He added that many vendors don't actually interact with their customers enough to truly understand their deployment and use issues."

Myself, I believe that Pendse's analysis applies broadly to all IT domains, which would include the VOC arena covered by the recent Forrester VOC report. If I am correct, what should we infer about these research findings based, apparently, almost exclusively on vendor interviews?

Now I won't go as far as IE does in criticizing Gartner and Forrester because I do believe there is valuable insight to be gleaned from their research. As with anything though, one has to not fall into the logical fallacy of doing an appeal to authority, in this case Gartner and Forrester, when building a business plan. The research they provide should be one component in any plan, but personally I don't use it as the foundation for my plans.

As for the IE criticisms of the firms and their methodologies, read the full article and make your own judgement. Mine is that the article may be a bit too harsh, but that's just my opinion.

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The area of IP law in the digital realm is really in a awful state. The balance between fair use and rights holders "rights" seem to swing from one extreme to the other. Examples include everything from rampant downloading of copyrighted material through P2P networks, which trample on rights holders, to the strict take down policies on YouTube which trample on fair use rights on videos that create mashup works.

Somewhere there has to be a balance, but it doesn't appear to be anywhere in the near future. Be that as it may, we may be entering a new era of IP battles inside Second Life. The latest case in point, the company which makes Tasers, those real life weapons the police use to subdue a person, has sued Linden Lab and Virtualtrade LLC for trademark infringement according to a report in Bloomberg.

Taser International Inc. filed a trademark-infringement lawsuit against the Second Life online virtual world creator over claims it sells unauthorized virtual versions of its electric stun guns.

Taser, the world’s biggest maker of stun guns, claims San Francisco-based Linden Research Inc. is damaging the company’s reputation and hurting its sales by allowing virtual weapons to be sold online under the Taser brand name, according to a 102- page complaint filed April 17 in federal court in Phoenix.

Okay, those of us who are content creators in Second Life knew something like this would happen eventually, so now we are entering new territory. While Linden Lab should have DMCA safe harbor protection, it remains to be seen how this will end. That said, here is an interesting aspect of the lawsuit:

Taser says the alleged infringement is especially harmful because the online stores include pornographic content.

Well it's good to know that the taser is a nice family friendly weapon.

Seriously though, that is an interesting area in which Taser is attacking Linden Lab in this suit, assuming that they filed DMCA's previously, and given the new adult continent policy. It isn't clear in the article whether or not Taser ever filed DMCA takedown notices, so it is entirely possible that they are over reaching in terms of bringing Linden Lab into the suit. We shall see though how it plays out in court.

As for the trademark violation itself, it's an interesting test case. However, it seems clear to me that whoever is selling these in world is very likely in violation of the trademark, and I don't see how any fair use argument could reasonably apply, so I wouldn't want to be in their shoes right now.

This latest example of IP battles in Second Life also brings up the following thoughts:

1. Perhaps this will encourage LL to do something about copybot.

2. If you are violating trademarks and copyrights in world, be forewarned, you may find yourself neck deep in legal troubles.

3. if you rent land to shop owners, this case would imply that you should make sure that those who rent from you are not selling real world brands without a license, otherwise you could find yourself dragged into something like this mess somewhere down the road.

We'll watch this case and see how it develops.


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